The release of Aung San Suu Kyi, the pro-democracy leader, is obviously a cause for celebration – but we have to be realistically doubtful about the prospects of change in Burma. While it is just possible that her freedom might light the slow-burning fuse of a popular uprising against the military junta, it is likely that her release is, on the contrary, an indicator of the regime’s confidence and strength. Unlike her release in 2002, which was part of a dialogue under the auspices of the United Nations, this time it forms no part of a recognition by the junta that it needs to engage with her or her party, the National League for Democracy, which it recently dissolved.
