by editor | Jan 1, 2012 | Lifestyle
Europe To Go Ex-Growth
In 2012
22 Dec 11
Updated forecasts by the leading economists Cebr show world growth falling to 2.5% in 2012, a downward revision from the forecast made in September. And Cebr have prepared a risk scenario ‘if the politicians fail to fix the problems of the Euro’ which would lead to ‘one or more countries leaving the Euro, sovereign defaults and banks going bust and needing to be bailed out’ which would reduce global growth in 2012 to 1.1%.
The European growth slowdown is forecast to be even more marked, with a fall in GDP by 0.6% in 2012 and a possible fall if the Euro fails to be saved of 2.0%.
The forecast for the US is better than for Europe, with growth of 1.8% in 2012.
The bulk of the economic growth that is likely to take place next year will be in the emerging economies. China is forecast to grow by 7.6% and India by 6.0%. But other recent star economies are likely to face an economic slowdown with Turkish growth slowing to 2.5% from 7.1% this year; Saudi Arabia at 4.0% after 6.1% this year; Russia 2.8% after 3.8% this year; and Brazil 2.5% after 2.8% this year.
The knock on effect of continued sluggish demand growth is that oil and commodity prices are likely to be weaker than previously assumed. Cebr now forecast that the price of oil (weighted average of Brent Crude, West Texas Intermediate and Dubai Fateh) will fall to $86 in 2012 compared with an average of $103 in 2011. The commodity price index is forecast to fall by 10% in 2012.
“The world economy will not be in technical recession because even on our more pessimistic scenario we still expect positive growth” comments Douglas McWilliams, Cebr’s Chief Executive and co-author of the report. “But the slowdown we are expecting will be a sort of double dip, and of course significant parts of the world are likely to be in recession – much of Europe for example.”
by editor | Jan 1, 2012 | Lifestyle
Upwards Revision To Q3
UK Economic Growth,
But Q4 Is Likely To Be Weak
22 Dec 11
The Office for National Statistics unpacked a Christmas gift for the British economy this morning. It revised the previous estimates of GDP growth in Q3 2011 up to 0.6% from 0.5% quarter-on-quarter growth.
From a production side, the UK owes its growth to services, while manufacturing is stalling. Household incomes rose slightly (0.3% q/q), but most of this was put away as the savings ratio increased from 6.4% in Q2 2011 to 6.6% in Q3. Households are thus keeping up their debt reduction efforts, mirroring the public sector. In this environment of general deleveraging, strong growth is out of the question.
Compared to the third quarter of 2010, GDP is only up by a lacklustre half a percentage point. The disappointing performance of the UK economy becomes even clearer when considering that output was 3.8% lower in Q3 2011 than at the pre-crisis peak in Q1 2008. A alternative definition of recovery from a recession is that the recession is over when the economy has reached its previous peak level of output. We estimate that it will take until the first quarter of 2015 for output to climb back to this level. In other words, after three and a half years the UK has only reached the middle of its seven lean years that follow the fat financial boom years.
In this light, the bleak economic indicators released over the past year are less surprising. Unemployment has climbed to 8.3%, manufacturing has contracted and the housing market is stagnant. Also, a 1% year-on-year increase in general government consumption shows that public spending cuts have barely started despite heavy job cuts.
For the last quarter of the year, we expect a fall in output, while next year is forecast to see slow growth similar to the overall performance of 2011. Government will continue to pursue its course of deficit reduction while the Bank of England supports the economy with further quantitative easing.
Tim Ohlenburg
Senior Economist
Cebr
020 7324 2871
[email protected]
by editor | Jan 1, 2012 | Lifestyle
The Changing Face of Estate Agency
29 Dec 11
Traditional estate agency is making way for lower cost, localised sales and lettings franchises, says property and lettings expert Sussanne Chambers, managing director of HomeXperts.
The New Year is started and this is always a time for reflection, as the trends of the past year are analysed and ‘experts’ try to take a best guess at what the next year will bring.
Ten years ago, who would have predicted that social networking websites, such as Twitter, Facebook and Youtube would be so massive? Now even estate agents have their own social networking websites: Ageants and Juicy Red Apple!
As social changes happen all around us the face of housing and estate agency has also changed dramatically during the past five years. Renting a house has become the solution for many people as more transient, chaotic lifestyles make the flexibility to move more important. Young people struggle to get onto the bottom rung of the housing ladder as financial institutions continue with tight lending criteria. During the past ten years there has also been a dramatic improvement in standards of rented homes in the UK in the wake of the Housing Act 2004. Currently 16% of properties in the UK are currently privately let and this figure is expected to rise to 20% over the next ten years.
The credit crunch and continuing problems within the property sector have seen estate agents in their droves closing their doors. But what statistics do not show is the number of satellite branches which have been closed as traditional High Street Agents batten down the hatches and cut costs in an effort to fight the effects of tougher financial times, fewer instructions and reduced commissions.
This reduction of localised agents across the UK has left a gap in the market for a new breed of estate and letting agent. The past year has seen a number of new personal agents start to gain share of the market, filling the space left by the vacating traditional agent. These businesses, which have been set up during the credit crunch with low overheads, often have the owner working from a low-cost, non high street office or at home.
This new breed of self-employed letting and estate agents seems to be a hit with landlords and vendors. Today’s vendor or landlord does not want to deal with the ‘Saturday Girl’ who may not be able to answer even the simplest questions. Discerning vendors want to deal with the business owner who delivers outstanding service levels, is knowledgeable about the local market and personally motivated to sell or let their house.
As the new year starts many employed and unemployed people will be thinking of branching out and setting up their own business; but how can they minimise the considerable start-up risks? For new businesses the figures do not read well – the CBI states that 90% of new businesses fail within the first five years. In contrast, statistics show that if the new business is a franchise, the figures are reversed: 90% of new franchise businesses succeed. The franchise sector has remained remarkably buoyant throughout the downturn. Statistics from the British Franchise Association (BFA) show that nine out of 10 franchises remained profitable throughout the recession.
During 2011 Nat West launched a £100 million franchise fund and Peter Ibbetson, chairman of small business for NatWest and RBS says: “Everybody wants to see banks funding business growth, as well as helping new businesses get off the ground to create jobs – this is exactly what this fund will deliver. The industry has shown itself to be virtually recession-proof, so for the many people left out of work by the recession franchising is a great way to start up a business – plus they get the support of a big brand behind them.”
Recession-proof is right. At the height of the economic downturn, the franchise industry’s turnover increased to £11.8 billion – with 94% of franchisors optimistic about the future. The franchise model is a low-risk, straightforward route to running a business – especially attractive to first-time entrepreneurs. And, interestingly, more women are now choosing franchising as a means to take the leap into enterprise. The BFA’s annual survey shows the number of female franchisees increased by 86% in the last seven years.
If property interests you there are many property franchises to choose from and the first decision you need to make is do you want to do sales and letting, or just one discipline? Xperience has 80 agency branches in the UK, operating under the 4 brandsof Ellis &Co, CJ Hole, Parkers and Whitegates. One of the largest lettings franchises is Belvoir, with over 200 franchises across the UK under. This franchise offers lettings from a High Street Office location. Their initial franchise fee includes business planning, training and development, support and marketing.
But one of the new breeds of estate agency franchises to emerge most strongly during 2011 are home-based letting and estate agents HomeXperts.
Using the power of the Internet, delivering amazing service standards and using innovative marketing techniques, HomeXperts are recognised as the fastest growing property franchise in the UK. The local HomeXperts franchisee works in a highly localised territory, quickly becoming the expert for that area, offering an unparalleled service. While other property franchisees require large initial capital to start, with starting franchise fees of £22,000 up to £35,000 – the HomeXperts Franchise fee is £12,995 plus VAT.
Full training is given to National Federation of Property Professional standard, plus the allocation of a personal Support Manager at HomeXperts Central Office. This is continued with on-going support from the online members’ area at www.home-xperts.co.uk. This means that people who have not been in the industry previously can start their business and be operating in their local area within a month of finishing the training academy. The franchisee fee includes a set up for success pack which includes a local website, sales letting boards, marketing materials, Ipad and camera.
Why should you look into the opportunities of property franchising now? Well, things are on the move. Gross mortgage lending was an estimated £13.1 billion in October a 13% increase from £11.6 billion in October 2010, according to data published by the Council of Mortgage Lenders.
A recent study carried out by the Halifax has revealed that affordability of homes for first-time buyers is at its highest level for eight years. The First-Time Buyer Review calculates affordability based on prices lower than people on average earnings in a given area can pay. It was found that homes were affordable in 44 per cent of all local authority districts in Britain, the best result since 2003 and up from 42 per cent in 2010.
The signs of recovery of the property industry are all around us, giving this new breed of property professional the right market conditions to begin trading.
The New Year is the perfect time to make plans to change direction and start a new challenge!
Property Franchise Details
Contact Xperience
0845 337 0220
Belvoir
01476 570000
HomeXperts
www.home-xperts.co.uk
Tel: 01905 673313
by editor | Jan 1, 2012 | Lifestyle
I Can Sing A Rainbow
22 Dec 11
Kids’ Rooms’ colourful collection of fabric designs incorporate all the colours of the rainbow!
Kids’ Rooms has created the ultimate collection of gorgeous new furniture to bring bedrooms to life with a dash of effervescent colour. Kids’ Rooms, the leading online children’s retailer, is delighted to introduce its vast and vibrant range of bright and bold uplifting coloured sofas, armchairs and bean chairs… certain to make your heart sing!
Kids’ Rooms’ dazzling collection of cosy and comfortable seats includes 20 striking armchair colours, 16 bean bag shades, 11 baby bean chair patterns, 12 sofa designs and 2 eye-catching duo-tone corner sofas.
Its epic variety of colours and designs is reminiscent of a never-ending rainbow; from red to blue and with all the colours in between, Kids’ Rooms has a lovely design to suit the décor of every bedroom and playroom. Additionally, with patterns such as Countryside, Roar Natural, Vibe Candy and Sailboat Light Blue, each miniature sofa and chair boasts its own charming character to suit all little personalities!
Little princesses can sit ‘pretty-in-pink’ with the Candyfloss Sofa or Candy Stripe Baby Bean Chair; whilst boys will feel right at home with the Blue Cord Bean Bag or Blue Gingham Baby Bean Chair. Furthermore, the majority of Kids’ Rooms’ wide range of colours is available across its entire seating collection, with coordinating armchairs, bean chairs, bean bags and sofas.
For a choice of fabrics in every colour under the rainbow, Kids’ Rooms has a one-stop ‘pot-of-gold’ for super-sofas and charming-chairs! Its comprehensive collection includes its fantastic range of beautiful and exclusive furniture, accessories, crafts, games, toys and much more besides. With products to suit a variety of styles, spaces and budgets, Kids’ Rooms has one of the UK’s largest selections of quality, practical and stylish bedroom collections.
We have a stunning selection of images available – as a taster we have attached: Corner Sofa in Red & Yellow (£350), Candyfloss Sofa (£165), Roar Natural Armchair (£99.95), Sailboat Light Blue Baby Bean Chair (£45), Vibe Candy Armchair (£99.95), Countryside Sofa (£165), Blue Gingham Baby Bean Chair (£45), Candy Stripe Baby Bean Chair (£45), Blue Cord Bean Bag (£45)
www.kidsrooms.co.uk Stockist: 02380 675941
by editor | Jan 1, 2012 | Lifestyle
Twice The Baby, Twice The Fun With Cosatto
22 Dec 11
The stampede is on, and every parent with 2 little’uns will want one of Cosatto’s latest You2 Twin Pushchairs. The only place in the universe that creates such quirky and aspirational twin strollers is Planet Cosatto. Feast your eyes (your starry eyes that is!) on the S/S 2012 collection…
Two bundles of joy, one pair of hands. Whatever your combo, there’s a Cosatto…Sisters with sisters, brothers with brothers, brothers with sisters – all bundles of bounce need a cool co-cruiser for their joint journey. Cosatto’s award-winning yummy You2 is as much cheeky as you can fit on twelve wheels. This smooth umbrella-fold pushchair does super softness and much cool stuff. The independent lie-flat reclining seat allows for synchronised snoozing. Let your two little superheroes roll united, safe in orbit. Suitable from birth, You2 lets your babies cruise close, bonding on their shared journey.
Cosatto’s quirky designs just get better with new stunning prints available in Hello Dolly, Big Sis Little Sis, and Big Bro Little Bro. Not forgetting Cosatto’s favourite classics; Sis and Bro too, Little Tweeters, and Owl and Pussycat. Each You2 tells a story. Say hello to a flamboyant mix of flower power, starry eyes, polka dots and dolly prints.
Highlighted Stuff:
- Suitable from birth
- 3 recline positions that work independently
- 3rd handle for ease of use
- Compact umbrella fold with auto-lock
- Lockable swivel front wheels
- FREE cosy toes with kanga pouch & reversible zip-off fleece liner
- FREE chest pads and headhugger
- FREE insulated bottle carriers
- FREE raincover
- FREE 4 year guarantee (UK & Ireland only)
- NEW 2012 models now feature new safe folding hinge and signature Cosatto ‘dude’ wheels
- NEW 2012 models feature unique toy loops – no more losing toys on the go
Weight and Size
Weight: 13kg
Size: H: 105cm W: 74.5 cm L: 81cm
Folded Size: L: 106cm W: 50cm H: 33cm
Handle Height: 106cm
Other Information
RRP £290.00
